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The Labor Department reported that the number of new jobs produced in the US economy between April 2023 and March 2024 was 818,000 fewer than previously stated. The preliminary revision is derived using actual payrolls from state unemployment insurance tax records. The average monthly job growth for the year ending in March ’24 was 174,000, which was 68,000 fewer than the initial projection of 242,000. The professional and business services sector accounted for almost half of the revision (dropping 358,000, or -1.6%). Other sectors reporting large declines included leisure and hospitality (dropping 150,000, or -0.9%) and manufacturing (dropping 115,000, or -0.9%). The final job figures will be released in February ’25.
The FOMC minutes for the July 30-31st meeting signaled that a September rate cut could be coming, noting that “the recent progress on inflation and increases in the unemployment rate had provided a plausible case for reducing the target range by 25 basis points.” Elsewhere, the minutes noted, “The vast majority observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” The minutes further supported the appropriateness of the timing, noting that “almost all participants observed that the factors that had contributed to recent disinflation would likely continue to put downward pressure on inflation in the coming months.”
The National Association of Realtors reported that after four consecutive months of decline, sales of existing homes increased (+1.3%) in July to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3.95M (-2.5% Y/Y). Regionally, sales were flat in the Midwest, while the Northeast, South, and West reported increases. Sales of single-family homes increased (+1.4%) to a 3.57M annual rate (-1.4% Y/Y) and existing condo sales were unchanged at a 380K annual rate (-11.6% Y/Y). Total housing inventory reported up (+0.8%) to 1.33M (+19.8% Y/Y). Properties typically remained on the market for 24 days, up from 22 days in July. Unsold inventory is at a 4.0 month run rate, down from 4.1 months in June. The median existing-home price for all housing was $422,600 (+4.2% Y/Y). All regions registered price gains. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% as of August 15, up from 6.47% a week earlier, but down from 7.09 % a year ago.
Monday August 26 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (July)
Tuesday August 27 – Consumer Confidence (August)
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