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The Labor Department reported the consumer price index increased (+0.3%) in November; this follows four consecutive months at (+0.2%). Over the past 12 months, the all items index has climbed (+2.7%), which is 0.1 percentage points more than reported in October. The shelter index (+0.3%) accounted for nearly 40% of the monthly increase in the all items index, while the food index increased (+0.4%). The energy index increased (+0.2%) and follows an unchanged reading. Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased (+0.3%) in November, matching the previous three months. The annual rate of core CPI inflation increased (+3.3%), matching the previous two months. The shelter index saw its lowest 12-month increase since February 2022, rising (+4.7%). Indexes with significant increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+12.7%), medical care (+3.1%), education (+4.2%), and recreation (+1.5%). Conversely, the energy index saw a (-3.2%) decline as the fuel oil index dropped (-19.5%), and the gasoline index dropped (-8.1%).
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects nearly 90% of the 1.6 million barrels per day (b/d) increase in global oil production that is anticipated in 2025 to come from non-OPEC+ nations. The Brent crude oil spot price is anticipated to stay near its current level in 2025, averaging $74 per barrel. Crude oil imports are expected to drop in 2025 to their lowest level since 1971, to 1.9 million b/d, as U.S. crude oil production is forecast to increase. Natural gas inventories are predicted to reach 1,920 billion cubic feet at the end of March 2025, a 2% increase over the five-year average. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price is expected to average about $3.00 per million British thermal units for the rest of the winter heating season. Electricity sales are expected to be 2% higher this winter.
The Labor Department reported that the producer price index for final demand, which measures the prices that producers pay for goods and services, advanced a seasonally adjusted (+0.4%) in November after an upwardly revised (+0.3%) in October and a (+0.2%) reading in September. Year over year, the headline PPI increased an unadjusted (+3.0%) from an upwardly revised (+2.6%) the previous month. A (+0.7%) rise in final demand goods was the primary factor, accounting for nearly 60% of the headline number. Prices for final demand food jumped (+3.1%), accounting for 80% of the rise in final demand goods. Final demand services increased (+0.2%), marking the fourth consecutive increase. Final demand trade services margins led the increase in services, rising (+0.8%). Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the core PPI increased (+0.1%); this follows (+0.3%) the previous month. Core PPI inflation moved up (+3.5%) year over year, matching the previous month.
Wednesday December 18 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thursday December 19 – Existing Home Sales (November)
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