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The EIA’s March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that crude oil prices will rise by $5 per barrel to $75/b by Q3 2025 due to decreasing production from Iran and Venezuela. However, oil prices are expected to fall to $68/b in 2026 as oil inventories increase. Natural gas inventories are expected to fall below 1.7 trillion cubic feet at the end of March, which is 10% below the previous five-year average, due to cold weather. The Henry Hub price forecast for 2025 is $4.20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), an 11% increase from last month’s estimate. The 2026 forecast is $4.50/MMBtu, an 8% increase. Total U.S. electricity sales are expected to increase by 3% in 2025, led by strong growth in the residential and commercial sectors. Electricity generation is also expected to grow 3% this year (vs. 2% forecast last month) and another 1% in 2026. The STEO did not take into account the potential impact of tariffs.
The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index increased (+0.2%) in February, a deceleration from (+0.5%) in January and (+0.4%) in December. The all items index rose (+2.8%) over the last 12 months, 0.2 percentage points lower than January’s report. The shelter index increased (+0.3%), contributing to almost half of the monthly all items index increase. Energy rose (+0.2%), as a (-1.0%) seasonally adjusted gasoline price decrease was offset by fuel oil, electricity, and piped gas increases. The food index also rose (+0.2%), following a (+0.4%) increase the previous month. Core CPI inflation, excluding food and energy, rose (+0.2%) in February, following a (+0.4%) January increase. The annual core CPI inflation rate rose (+3.1%), slowing from the previous month’s (+3.3%) increase. The shelter index rose (+4.2%), its lowest 12-month increase since December 2021. Significant year-over-year increases occurred in indexes including motor vehicle insurance (+11.1%), education (+3.7%), medical care (+2.9%), food (+2.6%), and recreation (+1.8%).
The Labor Department reported that the producer price index for final demand, which measures the prices that producers pay for goods and services, was unchanged in February, following upwardly revised increases of (+0.6%) in January and (+0.5%) in December. For the 12-month period ending in February 2025, the PPI rose by an unadjusted (+3.2%). Final demand services saw its largest decline since July 2024, falling (-0.2%) and ending a six-month streak of increases. Margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling decreased (-1.4%), accounting for over forty percent of the decline in final demand services. Final demand goods advanced (+0.3%), marking the fifth straight increase. Chicken egg prices, which soared (+53.6%), accounted for two-thirds of the increase in the final demand goods. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the core PPI increased (+0.2%), following (+0.3%) in January. For the 12-month period ending in February 2025, core PPI inflation rose by an unadjusted (+3.3%).
Monday March 17 – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (February)
Wednesday March 18 – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
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