Rover’s Weekly Market Brief – 02/28/2025

New Stock Rover Features and Enhancements

Exciting new features and enhancements are now available in Stock Rover V10! Check out our latest blog post ^[1] for more information on these updates.

Economy

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased ^[2] by 7.0 points to 98.3 in February 2025, marking the largest monthly decline since August 2021. This significant drop indicates a substantial decline in consumer confidence. A primary contributor was the heightened pessimism among consumers aged 35 to 55 regarding future economic conditions. While the Present Situation Index® declined 3.4 points to 136.5, the Expectations Index® dropped 9.3 points to 72.9, considerably below 80, a level that often signals a potential recession. Consumers’ inflation expectations also increased, surging from 5.2% to 6% due to rising prices for essential goods and renewed concerns surrounding trade and tariffs. The survey results reflect a decline in positive sentiment concerning financial situations, job availability, and stock market expectations, further heightening recession concerns.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported ^[3] that sales of newly built homes decreased (-10.5%) month over month to 657,000 in January from an upwardly revised rate of 734,000. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is down (-1.1%) from a year earlier. Regionally, sales rose a seasonally adjusted (+7.7%) in the West but declined in the Northeast (-20.0%), Midwest (-16.7%), and South (-14.8%). The average and median new home sale prices were $510,000 and $446,300, respectively, compared to downwardly revised December figures of $509,700 and $415,000. The seasonally adjusted supply of new homes for sale at the end of January was 495,000, representing a 9.0-month supply, up from a downwardly revised 8.0-month supply in December.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in its second estimate for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter, reported ^[4] an annual growth rate of 2.3%, down from the 3.3% first estimate and the 3.1% growth in Q3. Consumer spending increased 4.2% in the fourth quarter, with goods growing 6.1% (vs. 6.6% first estimate) and services growing 3.3% (vs. 3.1%). Government expenditures increased 2.9%, exceeding the 2.5% initial estimate. Business investments declined 5.7% (vs. 5.6% first estimate), while residential investment increased 5.4% (slightly up from 5.3%). The trade deficit widened, negatively impacting GDP growth, with exports falling 0.5% (vs. 0.8% first estimate) and imports declining 1.2% (vs. 0.8%). The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.4% (vs. 2.3% first estimate). The PCE price index rose 2.5%, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy prices rose 2.8%, both unchanged from initial estimates.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Wednesday March 5 – Factory Orders (MoM) (January)

Friday March 7 – Unemployment Rate (February)

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Dave (DAVE)	AutoZone (AZO)	Marvell Tech (MRVL)	Costco Wholesale (COST)	Constellation Software (CSU.TO)
Okta (OKTA)	Target (TGT)	Zscaler (ZS)	Broadcom (AVGO)	AltaGas (ALA.TO)