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The March ISM® (Institute for Supply Management®) Manufacturing PMI® reported at 49.0%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month’s seasonally adjusted reading. Following 26 months of contraction and two months of expansion, the economy registered in contraction once again. The New Orders Index declined for the second consecutive month, hitting 45.2%, its lowest level since May 2023. Both the Production Index (48.3%) and the Employment Index (44.7%) also reported being in contraction, indicating reduced factory output and workforce cuts. Conversely, the Prices Index rose to 69.4%, the highest reading since June 2022, driven by higher raw material costs due to tariffs. The Inventories Index climbed to 53.4%, its highest level since October 2022, as businesses stockpiled in anticipation of tariffs rather than due to actual demand. Meanwhile, new export orders dropped to 49.6%, reflecting trade tensions, particularly with Canada. The Imports Index registered growth for the third consecutive month, reaching 50.1%.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that orders for manufactured goods increased for the second consecutive month in February, rising by $3.6 billion (0.6%) to reach $593.9B, representing a 1.5% year-over-year increase. This follows an upwardly revised 1.8% rise in January. Transportation equipment increased by 1.5%, primarily driven by a 1.9% growth in motor vehicles, parts, and trailers. However, this was partially offset by a 5.0% drop in commercial aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, new orders grew by $2.1B (0.4%) to reach $495.5B (0.5% year-over-year). Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key indicator of business spending, fell by 0.2%. Shipments continued their upward trend for the fourth consecutive month, rising by 0.7% to $596.8B. Both unfilled orders at $1,402.7B and inventories at $864.9B saw slight increases of 0.1%. The inventories-to-shipments ratio declined slightly to 1.45 from 1.46.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 228,000 jobs and a 0.1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% for March. The number of unemployed increased slightly to 7.083 million. A year earlier, the unemployment rate was 3.9%, and the number of unemployed was 6.497 million. Job gains were seen in health care (+54,000), social assistance (+24,000), retail trade (+24,000), and transportation & warehousing (+23,000), while federal government employment saw a decrease of 4,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% to $36.00, representing a 3.8% rise from a year ago. The labor force participation saw a slight uptick to 62.5%. Additionally, long-term unemployment and permanent job losses among the unemployed both edged up to 1.495 million (21.3% of unemployed) and 1.810 million, respectively. Revisions to the January-February figures showed that 48,000 fewer jobs were added than initially estimated.
Thursday April 10 – CPI (MoM) (March)
Friday April 11 – PPI (MoM) (March)
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