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The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® decreased to 100.4 (1985=100) in June, from a downwardly revised 101.3 the previous month. The primary driver was consumer pessimism over short-term business expectations. The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions over the next six months, fell to 73.0 from an upwardly revised figure of 74.9. A reading below 80 may indicate a possible recession in the near future. Consumers expected business conditions to improve decreased to 12.5% from 13.7% in May, while 12.6% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 13.1%. Consumers expecting their incomes to increase fell to 15.2% from 17.7%. The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers’ sentiment toward current business conditions and the labor market, increased to 141.5 from a downwardly revised 140.8.
The U.S Census Bureau reported that sales of newly built homes decreased (-11.3%) in May. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000 is down (-16.5%) from a year earlier. All regions reported sales declines, as the Northeast lead with a (-43.8%) drop. The average sale price for a new home sold in May was $520,000, up from $503,700 the previous month. The median new home sales price slipped to $417,400 from $417,900 the previous month. There were 481,000 new homes for sale as of the end of May, the majority of which were under construction (278,000). The supply of new homes for sale increased to a seasonally adjusted 9.3-month supply, as compared to 8.1 months in April. The supply of new homes for sale was 6.9 months a year earlier.
The Commerce Department’s third estimate on the first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reported the economy expanded at an annual rate of (1.4%), up from second estimate (+1.3%), down from the first estimate of (+1.6%), and the (+3.4%) registered in Q4. The update reflected downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. Imports were revised to show subtracting 0.82 percentage points (pp) from the GDP instead of -1.02 pp. Nonresidential fixed investment added 0.59 pp instead of 0.44 pp. Government spending added 0.31 pp instead of 0.23 pp. The GDP increases were partially offset by a decrease in consumer spending. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures rose (+1.5%), a downward revision from the (+2.0%) second estimate, and (+2.5%) first estimate.
Monday July 1 – Manufacturing PMI (June)
Friday July 5 – Unemployment Rate (June)
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