Rover’s Weekly Market Brief – 09/20/2024

New Guru Portfolios

We’ve updated our Guru Portfolios, and we have added the Stanley Druckenmiller 13F Portfolio!

You can see a full list of all our portfolios here ^[1] and you can download any of the latest Guru Portfolios from the Stock Rover Library ^[2].

Economy

The Commerce Department reported ^[3] advance U.S. retail and food services sales increased to $710.8 billion in August, a (+0.1%) increase, this follows a revised increase of (+1.1%) instead of (+1.0%) for July. Retail sales were up (+2.1%) year over year. Total sales for June 2024 through August 2024 were up (+2.3%) year over year. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Excluding sales at auto dealerships and gas stations, sales were up (+0.2%). Miscellaneous store (+1.7%) and internet retail (+1.4%) led the way in sales increases, while gas stations (-1.2%) and electronics & appliance stores (-1.1%) led in sales declines. Restaurants, the only services category was unchanged. Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services rose (+0.3%) in August and follows an upwardly revised (+0.4%) reading the previous month.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced ^[4] that it will lower the federal funds rate by 0.50 percentage point to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%. The FOMC, in its statement, indicated that “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.” The FOMC’s latest quarterly economic projections ^[5] show that the economy is expected to grow 2.0% in 2024 and that the unemployment rate will be at 4.4%. The PCE inflation forecast was lowered to 2.3%, while core PCE inflation was reduced to 2.6%. The median fed funds rate was estimated at 4.4% for 2024, indicating another rate cut this year. The median federal funds rate was estimated at 3.4% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026.

The National Association of Realtors reported ^[6] that sales of existing homes dropped (-2.5%) in August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3.86M, and down (-4.2%) as compared to August 2023. Three of four regions experience sales declines, with the Midwest reporting flat sales. Sales of single-family homes decreased (-2.8%) to a 3.48M annual rate (-3.3% Y/Y) and existing condo sales were unchanged at a 380K annual rate (-11.6% Y/Y). Total housing inventory reported up (+0.7%) to 1.35M (+22.7% Y/Y). Properties typically remained on the market for 26 days, up from 24 days in July. Unsold inventory increased to a 4.2 month run rate, up from 4.1 months. The median existing-home price for all housing was $416,700 (+3.1% Y/Y). All four U.S. regions registered price gains. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.2% as of September 12, down from 6.35% a week earlier and 7.18% a year ago.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Tuesday September 24 – Consumer Confidence (September)

Thursday September 26 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (August)

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
AAR (AIR)	AutoZone (AZO)	Micron Technology (MU)	Costco Wholesale (COST)	Diato Trust Construction (DIFTY)
SolarBank (SUUN)	KB Home (KBH)	Cintas (CTAS)	Accenture (ACN)	NeoVolta (NEOV)