Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 12/08/2023

Guru Portfolios

We’ve updated our Guru Portfolios! You can see a full list of all our portfolios here and download the latest updates from the Stock Rover Library.

Economy

The ISM® (Institute for Supply Management®) Services PMI® rose to 52.7% in November from 51.8% in October. Economic activity grew in the services sector for the eleventh consecutive month. The sector has registered growth in in 41 of the last 42 months, the only contraction since June 2020 was December 2022’s 49.2% reading. Fifteen industries reported growth in November. Prices paid moved up month over month as the Prices Index reported up 0.3 percentage points 58.3%. This marks the 78th consecutive monthly increase in prices paid by services organizations for materials and services. Employment activity grew for the sixth consecutive month, as the Employment Index registered 50.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from October’s reading. New orders were flat as ISM®’s New Orders Index registered 55.5%, the same as the previous month. The New Orders Index showed expansion for the eleventh consecutive month. Eleven industries reporting an increase in new orders while 2 industries reporting a decrease in new orders. Supplier delivery times registered 49.6%, up from 47.5% in October. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50% indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increase. The index has been in “faster” territory for 10 of the last 12 months. The ISM® Services Backlog of Orders Index contracted in November dropping 1.8 percentage points to 49.1%. Four industries reported an increase in order backlogs, while five industries reported a decrease.

The US Energy Information Administration reported that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.6M barrels to 445.0M barrels (1% below the five-year average) for the week ending December 1st, this follows a 1.6M increase the previous week. Increases in inventories for both gasoline and distillates offset the depletion of crude oil inventories. Gasoline inventories increased by 5.4M barrels (1% below the five-year average), as compared to a 1.8M barrels increase the previous week. Distillate inventories increased by 1.3M barrels (13% below the five-year average), as compared to a 5.4M barrels increase the previous week. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.7M barrels. Crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.2M bpd, an increase of 179K bpd as compared to the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.5% of their operable capacity, as gasoline production increased to an average of 9.5M bpd and distillate fuel production increased to an average 5.1M bpd. Crude oil imports came in at 7.5M bpd, an increase of 1.7M bpd as compared to the previous week. Crude oil imports averaged about 6.6M bpd over the last four weeks, 6.4% more than the same period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 689K bpd, and distillate fuel imports averaged 82K bpd.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 199,000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.7% in November from 3.9% the previous month. October’s reading remained at (+150,000), while September was revised down showing (-35,000) less jobs. The number of unemployed workers was little changed at 6.3 million. Healthcare led the way adding (+77,000) jobs followed by government (+49,000), leisure & hospitality (+40,000), manufacturing (+28,000), social assistance (+16,000), and information (+10,000). Retail (-38,000) and transportation & warehousing (-5,000) reported job losses. Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased (+24,000) to 1.629M, and the number of reentrants to the labor force decreased (-102,000) to 1.782M. The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.8%, leaving it is still below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. Average hourly earnings grew 0.4%, the biggest jump since July 2022. At $34.10 average hourly earnings are up 4.0% from a year ago.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Tuesday December 12 – CPI MoM (November)

Wednesday December 13 – Fed Interest Rate Decision

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Casey’s General Store (CASY)	ESSA Pharma (EPIX)	Adobe (ADBE)	Costco Wholesale (COST)	Daily Journal (DJCO)
Oracle (ORCL)	Johnson Controls Intl (JCI)	Photronics (PLAB)	Lennar (LEN)	Darden Restaurants (DRI)