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The New Yorks Fed’s February 2025 Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported a slight increase in New York State business activity, with the general business conditions index rising to 5.7. This shows that business conditions are getting better, as any result over 0 indicates improvement. While new orders (+20 points to 11.4) and shipments (+16 points to 14.2) experienced moderate growth, delivery times lengthened, and supply availability decreased. The index for number of employees fell to -3.6, and input prices saw their highest increase (+11 points to 40.2) in almost two years. The index for future business activity fell (-15 points to 22.2), showing that firms are less optimistic about future conditions, despite anticipating improvements in the next six months. This drop suggests concerns about capital spending and supply availability in the near future.
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending February 15th increased by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 219,000. The four-week moving average was 212,250, a decrease of 1,000 from the prior week. Unadjusted data showed that actual initial claims totaled 222,627, a decrease of 10,118 compared to the previous week. Forty-two states and U.S. territories reported decreases in unemployment claims, while 11 reported increases. For the week ending February 8th, the insured unemployment rate was a seasonally adjusted 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. There were 1.869M jobless claims overall, which was 24,000 more than the previous week’s downwardly revised level. The number of persons receiving unemployment benefits through state or federal programs for the week ending January 1st was 2.219M a decrease of 63,324 from the week before. For the same week in 2024, 2.171M weekly claims were filed.
The National Association of Realtors reported that the sales of existing homes fell (-4.9%) in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08M. This marks the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year increases, with sales up (+2.0%) from January 2024. Single-family home sales dropped (-5.2%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.68M (+2.2% Y/Y). Existing condo sales were down (-2.4%) to an annual pace of 400,000, unchanged from a year ago. Total housing inventory rose (+3.5%) to 1.18M (+16.8% Y/Y) The average time properties spent on the market was 41 days, compared to 35 days in December, leaving unsold inventory at a 3.5-month supply rate in January, up from 3.2 months. The median existing-home price for all housing types was $396,900 (+4.8% Y/Y), with all four U.S. regions seeing price increases. As of February 20, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.85%, which is down from 6.90% a year ago and 6.87% one week prior.
Wednesday February 26 – New Home Sales (January)
Thursday February 27 – GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
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