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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased by 7.0 points to 98.3 in February 2025, marking the largest monthly decline since August 2021. This significant drop indicates a substantial decline in consumer confidence. A primary contributor was the heightened pessimism among consumers aged 35 to 55 regarding future economic conditions. While the Present Situation Index® declined 3.4 points to 136.5, the Expectations Index® dropped 9.3 points to 72.9, considerably below 80, a level that often signals a potential recession. Consumers’ inflation expectations also increased, surging from 5.2% to 6% due to rising prices for essential goods and renewed concerns surrounding trade and tariffs. The survey results reflect a decline in positive sentiment concerning financial situations, job availability, and stock market expectations, further heightening recession concerns.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales of newly built homes decreased (-10.5%) month over month to 657,000 in January from an upwardly revised rate of 734,000. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is down (-1.1%) from a year earlier. Regionally, sales rose a seasonally adjusted (+7.7%) in the West but declined in the Northeast (-20.0%), Midwest (-16.7%), and South (-14.8%). The average and median new home sale prices were $510,000 and $446,300, respectively, compared to downwardly revised December figures of $509,700 and $415,000. The seasonally adjusted supply of new homes for sale at the end of January was 495,000, representing a 9.0-month supply, up from a downwardly revised 8.0-month supply in December.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in its second estimate for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter, reported an annual growth rate of 2.3%, down from the 3.3% first estimate and the 3.1% growth in Q3. Consumer spending increased 4.2% in the fourth quarter, with goods growing 6.1% (vs. 6.6% first estimate) and services growing 3.3% (vs. 3.1%). Government expenditures increased 2.9%, exceeding the 2.5% initial estimate. Business investments declined 5.7% (vs. 5.6% first estimate), while residential investment increased 5.4% (slightly up from 5.3%). The trade deficit widened, negatively impacting GDP growth, with exports falling 0.5% (vs. 0.8% first estimate) and imports declining 1.2% (vs. 0.8%). The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.4% (vs. 2.3% first estimate). The PCE price index rose 2.5%, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy prices rose 2.8%, both unchanged from initial estimates.
Wednesday March 5 – Factory Orders (MoM) (January)
Friday March 7 – Unemployment Rate (February)
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