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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations reported that the median inflation forecast for September remained at 3.0% for the one-year horizon, increased from 2.5% to 2.7% for the three-year horizon, and increased from 2.8% to 2.9% for the five-year horizon. Over the next 12 months, the mean predicted likelihood of losing a job stayed at 13.3%. In the case of a job loss, the average chance of finding work increased from 52.3% in August to 52.7%. The median anticipated increase in household income was 3.0%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease. The average probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased for the fourth consecutive month from 13.6% to 14.2%, this is the highest reading since April 2020.
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims decreased 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ending October 12th. The four-week moving average was 236,250, which was 4,750 more than the upwardly revised average from the prior week. Twenty-eight states and U.S. territories reported increases in unemployment claims, while 25 recorded decreases. For the week ending October 5th, the insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2%. There were 1.867M jobless claims overall, which was 9,000 more than the downwardly revised amount from the week before. The number of persons receiving unemployment benefits through state or federal programs for the week ending September 28th was 1.637M, a slight rise of 496 from the week before. For the same week in 2023, 1.579M weekly claims were filed.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported housing starts decreased (-0.5%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.354M units in September, down (-0.7%) from a year ago. Single-family housing starts, which account for the largest share of homebuilding, increased (+2.7%) to a rate of 1.027M units, rising (+5.5%) from a year ago. New residential building permits, a proxy for future construction, decreased (-2.9%) to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.428M units. New residential building permits are running (-5.7%) below their September 2023 level. Single-family permits were up (+0.3%), while five units or more permits decreased (-10.8%). Privately-owned housing completions at 1.680M, were down (-5.7%) but (+14.6%) above their September 2023 level. The number of houses approved for construction but not yet started decreased (-0.7%) to 282K units, with the backlog for single-family housing dropping (-2.1%) to 143K units.
Wednesday October 23 – Existing Home Sales (September)
Friday October 25 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (September)
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