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The U.S. Census Bureau reported housing starts decreased (-3.1%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.311M units in October, down (-4.0%) from a year ago. Single-family housing starts, which account for the largest share of homebuilding, dropped (-6.9%) to a rate of 970K units, dipping (-0.5%) from a year ago. New residential building permits, a proxy for future construction, decreased (-0.6%) to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.416M units. New residential building permits are currently (-7.7%) lower than they were in October 2023. Single-family permits were up (+0.5%), while two to four units were down (-3.5%), and five units or more permits decreased (-3.0%). Privately-owned housing completions at 1.614M were down (-4.4%) for the month but (+16.8%) above their October 2023 level. The number of houses approved for construction but not yet started decreased (-1.1%) to 279K units, with the backlog for single-family housing remaining unchanged at 143K units.
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes climbed (+3.4%) in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96M, up (+2.9%) as compared to October 2023. This marks the highest annual growth rate since July 2021 (+1.8%). Single-family home sales surged (+3.5%) to a 3.58M annual rate (+4.1% Y/Y), while existing condo sales increased (+2.7%) to a 380K annual pace (-7.3% Y/Y). Total housing inventory grew (+0.7%) to 1.37M (+19.1% Y/Y). Unsold inventory slid to a 4.2-month run rate from 4.3 months in September but was up from 3.6 months in October 2023. Properties were on the market for an average of 29 days, as opposed to 28 days in September. The median existing-home price for all housing was $407,200 (+4.0% Y/Y), marking the 16th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. All four U.S. regions registered price gains. As of November 14, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.78%, down from 7.44% a year ago and from 6.79% a week before, according to Freddie Mac.
Seasonally adjusted, the S&P Global US Manufacturing (PMI®) increased to 48.8 in November from 48.5 the previous month, showing worsening business conditions in the manufacturing sector with the fifth consecutive monthly reading below 50. However, the smaller increase indicates that the manufacturing sector’s contraction is slowing. The sector is said to be expanding if the reading is above 50 and contracting if it is below 50. The S&P Global US Services (PMI®) increased from 55.0 to 57.0 in November, the best reading since March 2022 and the twenty-second reading above 50. Driven by services, the headline S&P Global Flash US PMI® Composite Output Index jumped to 55.3 from 54.1 in October. The growth in business activity was the fastest since April 2022. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, “The prospect of lower interest rates and a more pro-business approach from the incoming administration has fueled greater optimism, in turn helping drive output and order book inflows higher in November.”
Tuesday November 26 – New Home Sales (October)
Wednesday November 27 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (October)
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