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The Commerce Department reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales increased (+0.7%) to $709.6B in March, this follows a revised reading of (+0.9%) instead of (+0.6%) for February. Retail sales were up (+4.0%) year over year. Total sales for January 2024 through March 2024 were up (+2.1%) year over year. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Excluding sales at auto dealerships and gas stations, sales increased (+1.1%). Internet retail led the way in sales increases (+2.7%), while sporting & hobby (-1.8%) led in sales declines. Restaurants, the only services category increased (+0.4%). Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services grew (+1.1%) in March.
Fed Chair Powell in his remarks at the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy signaled that there will not be a rate cut anytime soon. Powell remarked “More recent data shows solid growth and continued strength in the labor market, but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our 2% inflation goal”. Powell sited the 12-month core PCE inflation remaining at 2.8% in February and March, with the 3- and 6-month measures being above that level. The FOMC in its previous statements has indicated that it was seeking confidence that inflation was sustainably under control. Powell stated, “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.”
The April release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book summary of economic conditions noted a small expansion in economic activity since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts reported either slight or modest economic growth. Consumer spending saw a slight increase, with mixed reporting across Districts and spending categories. Manufacturing activity declined, with only three Districts reporting growth. Residential construction saw a marginal increase, and most Districts experienced an increase in home sales. Nonresidential construction remained steady, while commercial real estate leasing experienced a slight decline. Employment saw a small increase, with nine Districts reporting very slow to modest growth and three Districts reporting no change. Price increases were modest and remained at a similar pace as in the last report.
Tuesday April 23 – New Home Sales (March)
Wednesday April 24 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (March)
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