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The Commerce Department reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales were little changed at $704.3 billion in June, this follows a revised increase of (+0.3%) instead of (+0.1%) for May. Retail sales were up (+2.3%) year over year. Total sales for April 2024 through June 2024 were up (+2.5%) year over year. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Excluding sales at auto dealerships and gas stations, sales were up (+0.8%). Sales for auto dealers and parts dropped (-2.0%), while gasoline sales dropped (-3.0%). Internet retail (+1.9%) led the way in sales increase. Restaurants, the only services category increased (+0.3%). Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services rose (+0.9%) in June and follows a (+0.4%) reading the previous month.
Fed Chair Powell in an interview at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. indicated that second-quarter economic data has given decision-makers more assurance that inflation is down and will likely reach the central bank’s target of 2%, perhaps opening the door for an interest rate reduction in the near future. Powell said “.. if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long, because the tightening that you’re doing, or the level of tightness that you have, is still having effects which will probably drive inflation below 2%”. Powell expressed optimism that inflation was returning to the 2% level, stating “What increases that confidence in that is more good inflation data, and lately here we have been getting some of that”. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for the end of July.
According to the Philadelphia Fed’s July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, area manufacturing activity increased overall. The current activity index rose to 13.9. The index for shipments, at 27.8 is at the highest reading since May 22, and the index for new orders, at 20.7 is at the highest reading since March 22, both went positive in July. The employment index rose to 15.2, the highest value since October 22, as more businesses reported adding workers. The current pricing indices indicated broad price increases with the prices paid index reporting at 19.8 and the price received index reporting at 24.2. More firms anticipate growth over the next six months as the index for future general activity rose to 38.7, the highest value since July 21.
Tuesday July 23 – Existing Home Sales (June)
Thursday July 25 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (June)
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