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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in July, going from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June (1985=100) to 100.3. This index gauges consumers’ expectations for the future as well as their perceptions of current economic conditions. Customers’ assessment of current conditions dipped slightly, as the Present Situation Index dropped from 135.3 in June to 133.6 in July. On the other hand, the Expectations Index, which gauges consumers’ expectations for their income, businesses, and the labor market for the near future, increased to 78.2 from 72.8 in June. This level is still below the critical threshold of 80, which often is indicative of a recession. The mixed signals show that while immediate consumer confidence may be declining, there is optimism for future economic conditions.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate within a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the same level set since the central bank’s July 2023 meeting. This marks the highest level in over two decades and the eighth consecutive meeting with no increase. The statement itself gave no indications that a rate reduction was imminent, although there was a softening in the language. The FOMC statement read; “Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.” Fed Chair Powell shed a bit more light in his FOMC press conference signaling a rate cut could be in the works stating that – “a reduction in the policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September”.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 114,000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.3% in July, the highest level in 34 months. The number of unemployed increased by 352,000 to 7.2M. A year earlier, the unemployment rate was 3.5%, and the number of unemployed was 5.9M. Job gains occurred in health care (+55,000), construction (+25,000), transportation & warehousing (+14,000), and social assistance (+9,000). Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased (+39,000) to a seasonally adjusted 1.682M, and the number of reentrants to the labor force increased (+66,000) to 2.160M. The labor force participation ticked up to 62.7% from 62.6% in June. Average hourly earnings grew 0.2%. At $35.07 average hourly earnings are up 3.6% from a year ago. Revisions to May and June payrolls combined to report 29,000 fewer jobs.
Tuesday August 6 – U.S. Trade Deficit
Thursday August 8 – Initial Jobless Claims
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