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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased slightly by (-0.1%) to 101.6 (2016=100) in December 2024, signaling continued economic challenges. Despite the overall decline, half of the index’s ten components contributed positively, suggesting some areas of the economy are improving. The Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased by (+0.4%), indicating ongoing economic improvement, while the Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) rose by (+0.1%), but its six-month growth rate remained negative at (-0.5%). The LEI decline was attributed to low consumer confidence, weak manufacturing orders, rising unemployment claims, and falling building permits. Overall, the data suggests that while current economic conditions are little changed in the short term, there are signs of economic resilience that could lead to growth, with projections estimating a (+2.3%) expansion of the US real GDP in 2025.
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims increased 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the week ending January 18th. The four-week moving average was 213,500, which was 750 more than the prior week. Unadjusted data showed that actual initial claims totaled 284,222, a drop of (-19.3%) as compared to the previous week. Forty-five states and U.S. territories reported decreases in unemployment claims, while 8 recorded increases. For the week ending January 11th, the insured unemployment rate was a seasonally adjusted 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s reading. There were 1.899M jobless claims overall, which was 46,000 more than the previous week’s downwardly revised level. The insured unemployment rate has not been this high since November 13, 2021, when it was 1.974M. The number of persons receiving unemployment benefits through state or federal programs for the week ending January 4th was 2.301M, an increase of 87,908 from the week before. For the same week in 2024, 2.148M weekly claims were filed.
For the week ending January 17, 2025, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs saw a decrease of 1.125 million barrels per day (bpd), down to 15.5M bpd. Refinery operating capacity also fell to 85.9% from the previous week’s 91.7%. Gasoline and distillate fuel production both fell averaging 9.2M bpd and 4.7M bpd respectively. Crude oil imports increased 621K bpd to 6.7M bpd, while commercial crude oil inventories edged down 1.0M barrels to 411.7M barrels. Conversely, total motor gasoline inventories grew by 2.3M barrels, while remaining 1% below the five-year average. Distillate fuel and propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.1M barrels and 3.7M barrels respectively. The average supply of total products over the past four weeks saw a year-over-year increase of 0.7%, reaching 19.7M bpd, as a rise in motor gasoline, distillate fuel, and jet fuel supplies all contributed.
Wednesday January 29 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thursday January 30 – GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
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